Good morning. One week, folks.

In the northwest suburbs, moderate Republican state Sen. Jim Abeler is Democrats’ top target for a seat flip. Abeler has managed to stave off increasingly close contests over his nearly three decades serving the Anoka area, first in the House then in the Senate. But Democrat Angela Nelson, a school principal and first-time candidate, said she’s confident she can retire him. The district is among a handful of competitive ones in the state and the result here could determine which party wins Capitol control for 2027. Dana spent time in the district over the weekend and has this dispatch.

Cookie-cutter ads are in ample supply when it comes to key legislative contests. Groups sinking loads of money into the main battleground races aren’t doing that much to change up their messaging from race to race. In some cases, it’s a matter of subbing out one name and candidate photo for another. Some are on network TV while others are cable or digital only. Advance Minnesota, a GOP spending group, has one eye-catching spot about an ax murder’s parole that it’s using against DFL incumbents and nonincumbents alike. Eight versions have been in rotation. Likewise, the Senate DFL caucus used a sub-and-pub ad touting the work of three incumbents on a Medicaid anti-fraud unit. The House Republican Campaign Committee — HRCC — checks in with a “won’t stop the fraud” hit on DFL incumbents and challengers featuring mugshots and says fraud is as ubiquitous as known state symbols as walleye, hotdish and, yes, the old state flag. The HRCC also has a mold-breaking ad that emulates an infomercial with unflattering shots of Gov. Tim Walz that ties him to DFL candidates and is complete with a fake phone number 1-555-FRAUD-UPAY4 (nevermind that it’s too many digits for a toll-free call).

Minnesota’s attorney general’s race is hot locally and apparently topping the national list of those to watch. State attorneys general have played a key role in the Democratic party’s opposition to President Donald Trump’s policies and decisions. Among those is Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, who is steeped in a tough re-election bid against GOP nominee Ron Schutz. The New York Times focuses on the Minnesota race in a larger story on races for state attorney general across the country. They write that many of these races have become nationalized, but are also being affected by state issues like crime and public safety. The story lists races where GOP state AGs are facing tough battles, but says, “For Democrats, the headache is in Minnesota,” saying Ellison is fighting for his political life — in a race that pits Ellison’s many lawsuits against the Trump administration with Schutz’s criticism of Ellison not doing enough on fraud. The race has brought in around $11 million in outside spending — with $6.8 million of that spent against Ellison. 

Former President Barack Obama is promoting DFL U.S. Senate nominee Peggy Flanagan in a new video. Obama, who has been hitting the campaign trail hard in the last few weeks, uploaded a video Monday urging Minnesotans to vote for the lieutenant governor . Obama talks about Flanagan working as an organizer for his first presidential run, and her work raising the minimum wage and passing paid family leave in the state. “Now she's running for Senate to fight for universal health care, to take on corruption in Washington, and to be a voice for Minnesotans in Washington,” he says. “Make a plan to vote for Peggy Flanagan by Nov. 3. This one matters.” Flanagan is locked in a close election battle with Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, who recently was endorsed by President Donald Trump. Flanagan held a four percentage point lead over Tafoya in three recent polls. In addition to Obama’s endorsement, a political group that pays one of his long-time advisers, David Axelrod, is putting $175,000 into ads against Tafoya. The same group — The Edge Action Fund — recently plowed about $2.5 million each into Senate races in Nebraska and Kansas, so Minnesota’s race is still a relative drop in the bucket.

It’s not getting the attention of the top-ballot races but the state auditor oversees more than $56 billion in local government finances. Three candidates are seeking the constitutional office: Republican Scott Jensen, DFLer Zack Filipovich and Forward Independence candidate Jay Reeves. Vincent Kallstrom has this FAQ on the office and the candidates. The race was close four years ago, when Republican Ryan Wilson came within half a percentage point of beating incumbent Democrat Julie Blaha. The auditor’s race is just one topic Brian will cover on the final pre-election Politics Friday.