Capitol View for Nov. 3 
MPR News Capitol View
By Brian Bakst, Peter Cox, Laura McCallum and Ellie Roth

Good morning. Soap, furnace repair and car commercials move back to the fore after tonight.
What to expect in Minnesota on Election Day
All seats in both chambers of the Minnesota state Legislature are up in 2026. Democrats have a one-seat advantage in the 67-member state Senate. In the state House, Democrats and Republicans were deadlocked at 67 seats each until a Republican member vacated his seat after the session adjourned for the year.
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Ready to vote but need a little intel? We’ve got you covered. First, not sure where you vote? Find your polling place here on the Secretary of State’s site, just type in your address. Not registered yet? No problem, Minnesota has same-day voter registration. Here’s what you need to bring with you to the polls. Need more info on who’s on the ballot? Use our handy Build Your Ballot tool at the top of our elections page. Type in your address and you’ll see candidates up and down the ballot, and their responses to basic questions. And don’t forget to follow our live blog for election day basics, reports from the polls and more. 
 
One story of this election year: People are availing themselves of voting at their own convenience rather than Election Day. More than 886,000 ballots were in as of yesterday morning. That’s no doubt at or near 1 million today. Consider that 2.5 million Minnesotans cast ballots in the last midterm. We expect there to be more this year but it means that at least 30-40 percent of voters are getting ballots in by mail or at in-person early voting locations. In other words, that closing message of candidates in the future needs to start far sooner.
 
Brian has prepared a cheat sheet of sorts for those who want to get deeper into the election results weeds. 
  • The statewide race to watch for numbers nerds is the constitutional amendment on school funding: Why you ask? Because that’s the total-voting barometer given that every ballot is counted regardless if that bubble is filled in (a blank ballot is registered the same as a “no”). We’ll know from there if people skipped other races of note.
  • The undervote phenomenon can be important: There have been suggestions that some voters might abstain in select races rather than pick between candidates they don’t like. In close races, those nonvotes will be powerful, too. In 2008, there were 22,723 fewer votes cast in the U.S. Senate race than the presidential race. Remember, Democrat challenger Al Franken prevailed after a recount and court fight by 312 votes over Republican Sen. Norm Coleman. Both ran considerably behind their party’s presidential nominee.
  • It’s possible for one party to win big in a statewide race or more than one but still struggle elsewhere: The way the legislative and congressional maps are drawn make it so success can be geographic. Case in point: Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton easily won a second term in 2014 — and the DFL swept the statewide races — but his party surrendered the Minnesota House majority to Republicans. As the rural-urban political divide intensifies, that could be the difference between a Capitol trifecta and a split government.
  • Don’t expect to know everything tonight: Particularly for the Legislature, recounts are part of the election fabric. In every campaign cycle since 1998, there has been at least one legislative recount and often more than one. There were two in 2024, two in 2022, five in 2020, two in 2018. You get the idea. As we saw last time, court fights are also a possibility. This could loom large if the chamber control battles come down to a seat or two.
  • It’s a good time to review that recount law: The threshold for a publicly financed recount depends on the office. For federal races, such as U.S. Senate or U.S. House, the difference between two candidates must be less than one-quarter of one percent of the votes counted. That’s also the standard for constitutional office (governor, attorney general, secretary of state and auditor). For the Legislature, it’s less than one-half of one percent. Discretionary recounts are available at the requesting candidate’s expense.
There are 122 Minnesota judicial races on the ballot — but only three are contested. As Ana Padro reports, those contested races are in the 5th, 9th and 10th Judicial Districts. Contested races for judicial seats are rare, since most are due to a judge’s retirement. Read more here. 
 
In addition to Justice Department election monitors, U.S. House Democrats are sending election observers to two Minnesota counties. Like the DOJ’s election monitors, Congress sending election observers to polling places is not a new development. In previous years, they have been sent to elections in competitive congressional districts. The House minority caucus is sending one observer to Hennepin County and another to Olmsted, which is part of Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District. Republican U.S. Rep. Finstad is facing Democratic challenger Jake Johnson in what has become one of the most competitive races in the county. The Republican-led House majority caucus has so far declined to send observers. 
 
Minnesota sports team owners show there’s room for politics in sports. The owners of the Wild, Vikings and Twins as well as the former Timberwolves owner have all donated money to political campaigns this year. The Star Tribune’s Shelby Swanson looked at who these team owners are supporting, and how much they’ve given to candidates. The owners of the Wild, Twins and Vikings all gave money to Democrat Amy Klobuchar in her race for governor — a total of $71,000. Former Wolves owner Glen Taylor and his wife, Becky, each gave $4,000 to Republican Lisa Demuth’s campaign. The party split is a bit more even in terms of donations to candidates for the state Legislature — the owners have given at least $138,000 to Democrats and $107,000 to Republicans this cycle, the Star Tribune says. But over time, the owners have given much more money to Democratic campaigns than Republican ones. Carleton College political science professor emeritus Steven Schier says that’s not necessarily about political leanings, but Democrats winning every statewide race since 2008. “You go where your opportunities are,” he said.
 
Speaking of sports, we’ve written here before how much the live-audience viewing is attractive to political advertisers. This Sunday’s Vikings-Lions game was one viewed inside many Minnesota households so it made it an expensive place for advertisers. Restore Sanity, the group that spent more than $800,000 alone on final week ads critical of Democratic governor nominee Amy Klobuchar, aired a single 30-second commercial during the game. The cost was $150,000. Minnesota Forward, a political group running anti-Peggy Flanagan ads in the Senate race, also paid that amount. House Majority PAC, which is airing attack ads against GOP Rep. Brad Finstad in southern Minnesota, got by with a $100,000 charge. Other groups went for 30-second ads during the pregame for a bargain $9,000.
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