Good morning. The first of 46 election days, well, voting days is today.

From here on out, the votes begin stacking up as the campaigns race to their “win number” in the respective races. Top campaigns model the electorate to know what it might take to get over the top in any given election. They guess at turnout. They analyze voter lists to determine who is likely to vote, who is soft and who probably won’t. They also have a good sense of who might land those votes based on a trove of data they collect, buy or can otherwise tap into. Chances are that if you’ve ever voted or even registered to vote, there’s a score assigned to you. Here are my back-of-the-napkin projections: Turnout will fall somewhere between 2.5 million and 2.9 million overall voters. That puts the minimum win number in head-to-head statewide races at more than 1.25 million votes and possibly as high as 1.45 million; most of the marquee races also have third-party candidates that will lower the win total and there is dropoff in votes the lower down the ballot you go. Yes, I’m granting myself a big margin for error. We know enthusiasm matters, and that isn’t shaping up to be equal among the parties. Presume a quarter to one-third of those 2026 votes are likely to come in early or via absentee/mail ballots. It makes a sustained get-out-the-vote approach imperative. Want to register your own predictive vote analysis? Email me.

Speaking of mail ballots, the U.S. Supreme Court cleared up some of the uncertainty about how those would be dealt with by the Postal Service in this midterm election. In Minnesota, that’s a reason for relief given that a growing number of ballots come in through the mail these days. Kirsti Marohn looked at the way mail voting plays out in practice . In Minnesota, cities with fewer than 400 registered voters and townships of any size can choose to have elections entirely by mail ballot. Voters retain the option of going to a county service center to cast a ballot if they prefer. 

Minnesota voters can start casting their ballots in the 2026 midterm election today with absentee voting beginning Friday. And ballots will begin to be mailed to voters who request them. And select early-voting locations will be open for in-person absentee voting.

Are you wondering who's on your ballot? Check out the candidates and learn more about them at the MPR News address-specific Build Your Ballot tool . Have an election question? Ask it here or learn more about registration, polling places and how to vote.

Governors and senators often write books when they’re gearing up to run for president. That’s NOT the case with Mark Dayton, who held both titles in a long Minnesota political career. Dayton is out with a memoir that he’s called “Perseverance.” He said he wanted to tell his life story on his terms as he nears 80 years old. The DFLer, who lost two statewide races but won four, is on a book promotion tour. He came by MPR News this week to talk about his autobiography, which retraces how he bypassed his family's retail sales empire to pursue a career in politics. Tune in for that on Politics Friday at noon. The show will also feature a conversation with two state party chairs: Republican Party of Minnesota leader Alex Plechash and Minnesota DFL counterpart Richard Carlbom.

Coming up in two weeks on Politics Friday, we’ll have the first of what we hope is a series of statewide candidate debates. DFL Attorney General Keith Ellison and Republican challenger Ron Schutz, a Twin Cities attorney, have agreed to an Oct. 2 debate at noon. Their race is sure to be close up until the final votes are counted so you won’t want to miss it. You’ll recall that we’re still working to book debates among the leading contenders for governor and U.S. Senate. 

A man who sprayed Rep. Ilhan Omar with vinegar during an unnerving town hall attack has been sentenced to 14 months in prison. Anthony Kazmierczak, 56, learned his sentence yesterday after pleading guilty to the offense. His action came at a tense time in Minnesota, when the Twin Cities were the epicenter of an immigration enforcement surge directed by the Trump administration. Kazmierczak sprayed the substance on Omar as she spoke from a podium and he was quickly tackled by a security detail before his arrest. He was charged federally because it involved a member of Congress. U.S. District Judge Joan N. Ericksen said the sentence reflects that it was a terrifying incident. “An attack on a public figure is not a political statement. It is misguided, selfish, and inconsistent with any concept of a free or democratic society,” Ericksen said. “I've spent enough time in jail thinking,” Kazmierczak said. “I really apologize to her for having put her through that,” he said, referring to Omar. 

After years of their nominee being overwhelmed on the money front, Republican Lisa Demuth has air cover this year from a group that has one major donor and some others. Michelle Griffith at the Minnesota Reformer has an indepth look at a money wrangler for Restore Sanity, which financed pro-Demuth ads during the primary and is running anti-Amy Klobuchar ads in the general election campaign. Tommy Merickel is tapping “business community allies” to fund the effort. Merickel is a longtime, well-connected Republican fundraiser and executive at Taylor Corp., the conglomerate founded by Minnesota Star Tribune owner and former Minnesota Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor. The story examines how he got involved. It includes quotes from Merickel saying the story should be that the Republicans have leveled the playing field somewhat. Glen Taylor and the Star Tribune distance themselves from the outside spending effort.

Artificial intelligence technology and the hyperscale data centers that support it are emerging as key campaign issues this year. Catharine Richert goes to Pine Island to illustrate how it’s motivating people to run for local office. That’s where Google is working to win approval for a data center and has been courting community support with promises of jobs and school improvement assistance. Races for mayor and city council in the southern Minnesota city are all about the data center and transparency issues attached to it. There are also data center components to campaigns for Congress and the Legislature across Minnesota. 

Officials are out with mixed economic news on the jobs and trade front. The Department of Employment and Economic Development released new data yesterday. It shows that in August, jobs stayed flat and unemployment ticked up to 4.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. That's higher than the national rate of 4.1 percent. At the same time, the share of Minnesota's population who either have a job or are looking for work fell. That rate has been falling all year. DEED Commissioner Matt Varilek says the state's population is aging and new workers aren't replacing them. "Our population growth has been boosted by a large number of arrivals from foreign sources, talented people choosing to come to this country and come to Minnesota, and current indications are that that has really almost been turned off entirely,” he said. On the trade front, the value of Minnesota's exports rose 14 percent in the second quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2025. Canada remained the state's largest export market. And Costa Rica became a Top 10 export country for the first time, driven by a surge in optic and medical products. Tariffs remain a concern for state officials given ongoing tensions with Canada.