Capitol View for Oct. 30 
MPR News Capitol View
By Dana Ferguson, Laura McCallum, Mike Mulcahy, Peter Cox and Brian Bakst

Good morning. You’ll be handing out candy this weekend. Candidates will be handing out campaign lit!
How Trump's immigration crackdown sparked a backlash that could boomerang in the midterms
Donald Trump roared back into office two years ago partly on the power of immigration. Trump’s pledge to seal the border and launch “mass deportations” earned him a wide swath of support, even in many heavily immigrant communities, amid frustration with the state of the border under former President Joe Biden.
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Vice President J.D. Vance cancelled his plans to appear at an event in St. Cloud today, but it wasn't immediately clear why. Vance had been scheduled to make an announcement about the Trump administration’s ongoing efforts to fight fraud. The U.S. Attorney's office for Minnesota confirmed late Thursday that Vance is no longer attending. They later clarified the press conference is still happening. No reason for Vance's cancellation was immediately given. Other reporting says that President  Donald Trump also canceled campaign events this weekend. Kirsti Marohn reported that Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Emmer, whose district includes St. Cloud, had posted on Facebook earlier in the day Thursday that he was “looking forward to welcoming Vice President JD Vance to the Sixth District.” 

Closing argument time is here for candidates working to lock in Minnesota votes in a year with a lot on the line. We’re throwing out the clock for “Politics Friday” with two full hours that will span the ballot. Starting at noon, we'll host the latest in our series of debates. This one features the contenders for secretary of state. We'll also hear from the candidates running for state auditor — a contest guaranteed to deliver a new officeholder next year.

Listen during the show for the latest conversations with the candidates for governor about triumphs and challenges in their lives. Our "In Your Backyard" series takes us to places that influenced the trajectory of major-party nominees. MPR News politics editor Brian Bakst met with gubernatorial candidates Amy Klobuchar and Lisa Demuth to discuss what shaped their lives and political journeys. Videos from the interviews with Klobuchar and Demuth are posted on our website and YouTube page.

Minnesota Democrats are criticizing President Donald Trump after he suggested Gov. Tim Walz could face capital punishment over fraud in the state. At a Wednesday rally in Ohio and on social media, Trump alleged without evidence that Walz stole from the state. And he said a Republican in that position would face the electric chair. Democrats said the comment was inappropriate and could stir people to violence. "It's despicable. It's abhorrent. It's dangerous, and I call on Michele Tafoya to condemn that true social post,” said DFL U.S. Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan. “We deserve so much better than that. It's vile, and there should be no place for it in our politics. Republican Michele Tafoya is challenging Flanagan in the Senate race. Asked about the comment, Tafoya deflected and said, “I am focusing on my campaign and the people that I'm talking to." 

Tafoya was in Moorhead Thursday, hosting a roundtable with business owners, farmers and other community members, as she makes her closing argument before the election. Tafoya heard complaints about high taxes and regulations from the panel, with some talking about the lure of moving across the river to Fargo for lower taxes. Tafoya said in the Senate there’s only so much she can do about state taxes, but says she’d work to lower taxes and regulations on the federal level. "I understand the things that you're talking about, and to me it's just a lot of unnecessary stuff,” she said. “There's a lot of duplicative regulation, both at the federal level and the state level. It needs to be streamlined. Your lives need to be easier. It needs to be easier for you to start a business, build a business, expand a business." Tafoya says she’s spending Friday in Duluth as part of her last days of the campaign.

It’s a strange new reality running for office in Minnesota in the wake of state Rep. Melissa Hortman’s killing last summer as candidates grapple with real safety concerns. From enhanced security presence at campaign events to requiring RSVPs for rallies to skipping solo door knocking, candidates are shifting their tactics to avoid potential threats. Dana spoke with several candidates about how they’re adapting in the first statewide campaign cycle since Hortman and her husband, Mark, were killed, including Sen. John Hoffman. He and his wife, Yvette, were also targeted and shot by the gunman that killed the Hortmans. Hoffman said inflammatory campaign ads are especially difficult to watch in the wake of the shootings, as they could inspire other acts of violence.

One of the most competitive congressional races in the country is in southern Minnesota, where the 1st Congressional District race is drawing national attention and lots of cash. As Molly Castle Work reported , polls indicate a tight race between DFL first-term candidate Jake Johnson, a high school math teacher in Rochester, and Republican Rep. Brad Finstad, a fourth-generation farmer first elected in 2022. Politico reported that House Speaker Mike Johnson was in Minnesota Thursday to fundraise for Finstad. President Trump endorsed Finstad on social media Monday, and former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg, a possible contender for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, will campaign with Johnson Sunday. 

Early voting record set in Minneapolis. The city’s office of Elections and Voters Services said it had accepted 52,661 ballots through Wednesday. That surpassed the previous record set in 2018. The office said in a news release that at this point during the 2022 gubernatorial election, 29,290 ballots had been accepted and that this year’s numbers represent a 79.8% increase in early vote turnout so far compared to 2022. The latest statewide early voting figures will be out this morning from the Secretary of State’s office. Don’t be surprised if we’re closing in on 1 million votes cast before regular polls open on Tuesday.

The final Minnesota polls done by KSTP and Survey USA will be out tonight. Tune in at 5 p.m. for the results in all five statewide races. Democrats had an edge in all of the station's mid-October polls, although some were within the survey's confidence interval. 
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